What Happens During a Disaster: The First 14 Days
What Happens During a Disaster?
Phase 1 - The Calm Before the Storm (0-6 Hours)
Initial Shock and Denial: In the first moments of a disaster, most people are in shock. They may not fully grasp the severity of the situation or are in denial about the extent of the damage.
Limited Awareness: Information is sparse, and many people assume things will be back to normal soon. Basic services like power, water, and communication may still function depending on the nature of the disaster.
Initial Panic Buying: If there’s early warning, people rush to stock up on essential items like food, water, and fuel. In these early hours, shelves empty fast, and lines at gas stations grow long. Despite the rush, most people still follow the rules.
Phase 2 - Rising Panic & Fear (6-24 Hours)
Information Overload and Rumors: As news spreads, social media (if there’s power/signal) or word of mouth amplifies fear and confusion. Misinformation and rumors exacerbate uncertainty, leading to increased panic.
Psychological Strain Begins: People realize this isn’t a short-term inconvenience but a potentially prolonged crisis. Anxiety, fear, and uncertainty drive irrational decisions, and the collective mood shifts from calm to chaos.
Breakdown of Order Begins: If the disaster disables power or supply chains, basic infrastructure (food, water, medicine) may start to falter. People who failed to prepare realize they need to act, and desperation starts creeping in.
Police and Emergency Services Overwhelmed: As calls for help increase, local law enforcement and emergency responders are overwhelmed. There’s still some semblance of order, but authorities are starting to strain.
Phase 3 - Breakdown of Social Order (24-72 Hours)
Initial Breakdown of Law and Order: As supplies become scarce, you begin to see instances of looting, particularly in densely populated urban areas. Initially, it’s opportunistic, with people targeting stores for food, water, and medicine.
Fear Turns to Aggression: The combination of fear, hunger, and lack of resources pushes people to aggressive behaviors. Small conflicts break out in public spaces over resources like fuel and food. People who previously followed the rules begin to take matters into their own hands.
Government Response Begins: In this phase, local governments and national organizations start mobilizing. However, depending on the severity and scale of the disaster, the response may be delayed. There is often a lack of coordination or sufficient resources to address the needs of affected populations.
Martial Law in Extreme Cases: In some cases, the government may impose martial law to restore order. Curfews and travel restrictions are put in place, but enforcement is often inconsistent, especially in areas with widespread unrest.
Phase 4 - Descent Into Chaos (3-7 Days)
Total Breakdown of Law: At this point, the thin veneer of society breaks down. People who have run out of food and water, or feel that no help is coming, throw out all laws. Looting becomes widespread, and in some cases, mobs form to take over larger stores, distribution centers, or fuel depots.
Violence Increases: Violence and conflict between individuals and groups escalate, especially in areas where supplies are dwindling. People begin forming groups for protection or as raiders, targeting vulnerable homes and businesses.
Government and NGO Struggle to Maintain Control: Governments, the Military, and NGOs like the Red Cross ramp up their efforts to distribute aid and provide security, but they are often outmatched by the scale of the crisis. Roads may be blocked, transportation limited, and widespread panic makes distribution difficult.
Survival Instincts Take Over: At this stage, it’s every person for themselves. People start making decisions purely for survival, including theft, violence, and fleeing cities for more rural areas where they believe safety or resources are more accessible.
Phase 5 - Organized Gangs & Factions Emerge (7-14 Days)
Forming of Groups for Power and Resources: In areas where civil authority is weak or absent, groups begin forming to control resources (e.g., food, fuel, water). Some of these groups act as “local authorities” by setting rules or distributing supplies, while others become predatory gangs.
Black Market Thrives: If normal markets and trade networks are disrupted, the black market starts to flourish. Essential items like food, fuel, medicine, and ammunition are exchanged at inflated rates, sometimes for favors, protection, or in exchange for other resources.
NGO and Government Exhaustion: Government agencies and NGOs are stretched thin, trying to deal with multiple crises at once. Supply chains are disrupted, and aid is slow to arrive. Some areas are simply inaccessible due to lawlessness or environmental destruction.
Bad to Worse – Health Issues and Secondary Crises: As sanitation systems break down, secondary health crises like disease outbreaks occur (e.g., cholera, dysentery). In addition to the struggle for resources, people now face threats from illness due to lack of clean water and hygiene.
Phase 6 - Long-Term Collapse or Restoration of Order (14 Days - Months)
Collapse in Some Areas: In areas where civil authorities fail to restore order or reach, societal collapse can become long-term. Lawless zones emerge where gangs and factions maintain control (this happened in the USA during COVID). The most vulnerable suffer disproportionately, and survival becomes increasingly harsh.
Government Control Restored in Some Areas: In more organized or better-prepared areas, the government and NGOs gradually regain control. Curfews, relief aid, and rebuilding efforts take place. It can take weeks to months to restore normalcy, but over time, order is re-established.
Psychological Aftermath: Even after physical needs are met, there’s often a lingering sense of trauma. People may suffer from long-term anxiety, PTSD, or distrust of societal structures.
Factors That Can Make Things Go Bad Quickly
Lack of Preparedness
Communities that aren’t prepared for disasters (e.g., with food, water, and medical supplies) descend into chaos faster, as panic drives people to desperate measures.
Poor Communication
Confusion and rumors escalate fear and irrational behavior. Inaccurate or missing information can fuel panic and violence.
Delayed Government Response
If the government doesn’t act quickly and decisively, the vacuum of authority allows opportunistic groups to seize control, accelerating the collapse of order.
Urban Density
Cities are the most likely to fall into chaos due to high population density, limited resources, and strained infrastructure. Riots, looting, and violence often spread quickly in urban areas.
